It’s Offer-Making Season.

Listen. Agents and Sellers are crying about the market right now.

The easy money is gone.
Inventory is way up.
24.5% year-over-year in September, reaching the highest level since 2014. Furthermore, the tri-county core (King, Snohomish, and Pierce) saw inventory spike by a massive 31.2%.

Historically, this is a 'normal market.'
Historically average Mortgage rates.
Historically average days on market.

But if you're under 40, it will never feel normal, because for most of your life, mortgage rates have been artificially low.

Here's the deal. Fannie Mae updated their guidance stating Mortgage rates are going to remain in the ballpark of 7.5% for the rest of 2026, and all of 2027.

March 2022 is largely considered the Peak of the Seattle real estate market.
Since then, the market has completely shifted.

If you bought in 2021-2024, home values have not changed that much. For many, they've cooled off enough that there has been a decline in value. For some, the value remains, but the cost of sale is eating into them being able to sell and walk away without losing some of their downpayment - others are brining cash to close in order to pay their cost of sale fees.

Right now, sellers are facing the highest level of competition in over a decade with inventory reaching its highest level since 2014. For buyers, this means more choices and significantly less competition.

Simultaneously, sellers are watching their home values sit flat or bleed out, with median Seattle prices down 1.8% over the last 12 months (validated by recent Zillow Market Trends data through September 2026).

So, that's 1.2% October 25 to October 26. Since the peak in march 2022, the median home price has fallen by about $100K. That's real money to sellers overall. The 2022 peak is gone, and frankly was an anomaly. Today is today, and this is the market we are in now.

The 4-year reality check:

• 2022: Peak frenzy. Sub-4% rates. $950k median.

• 2023: Rate shock. Market drops 17% to $780k.

• 2024: Fake rebound. Buyers adjust; median bounces to $898k.

• 2025–2026: The plateau. Prices stabilize at $850k (down 1.2% year-over-year).

If you bought a home in 2024, you didn't lose $100k in value. Your home is worth roughly what you paid for it. What did change is buyer leverage.

BUT, active inventory is up 24.5%—a 10-year high. Sellers are facing real competition for the first time in a decade.

What this means for a Buyer:
Sellers are finally sweating, and they are open to negotiation. Instead of competing purely on the sticker price, we can use this leverage to negotiate seller concessions—like a 2-1 rate buy-down paid entirely by the seller—getting you the exact house you want at a much more manageable monthly payment.

As of today - October 26th, 2026 - there are around 420 residential properties for sale in the NWMLS (not quite all of WA State), where the agent has indicated the seller would entertain some kind of owner financing.

That's an incredible trend, and potentially an opportunity. When I speak to sellers, we are actively discussing owner financing to preserve their capital.

The Home Buyers Reality:
Buyers can't just get approved for a mortgage and think that's enough. For a buyer to buy your home even at the same price you paid in 2021/2022, their payment is easily $1,500 to $2,400 more each month on a 1,200,000 home purchase with 20% down.

A Smart Sellers Strategy:
If you are selling, you need an agent who understands this reality. Instead of just dropping your price, you need a strategy. You have to use every tool at your disposal to make the math work for the buyer:

Lender credits.
Seller credits.
Buydowns - permanent or temporary.
Owner financing - partial or full.
Loan Assumptions.

Remember, a home on the market is a home asking for an offer. For a Seller, the first rule of Negotiation is to have someone to negotiate with.

Here to help.
Happy to talk shop.

Justin H Gazabat
Broker | PNW, Seattle, Ballard, East Side
www.JustinGazabat.com
206-424-9497

PS: If anyone in your social or work circles considering a move, just send Me an intro text or email with their best contact info, make sure everyone is CC’d and I’ll take care of the rest! I promise to take great care of them, serve them well, make you look good, plus help them get great results.