Lots of wild data here. I think the Key things to know are:

• National Data isn't Local - the numbers are vastly different.

• Condos aren't condos anymore - they are houses and townhomes now too.

• Seattle’s Inventory is Still a Problem – Even with more listings hitting the market, we’re nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Expect multiple offers to remain the norm.

• More Buyers, Higher Prices – Lower mortgage rates might seem like a win, but in Seattle, they mean fiercer competition and bidding wars pushing prices up.

• Rent Caps Won’t Lower Rents – A 7% cap sounds like relief, but in reality, landlords are now guaranteed to raise rents every year to keep up with costs.

• Owning - Still better than not owning -- in the long run.

Let's get into it:

The monthly median house sales price began its usual rebound from the mid-winter low and also increased year over year. It will typically continue to rise through June as the spring market heats up. What's confusing about that, is that because we track "sold" data, homes that list in May, close in June. So we say Rise through June... But it's really the May listings that are closing in June. Often homes that list in June here in seattle are a bit flat compared to the over all increases in value that spring brings.

The median condo/co-op sales price also increased on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Recently some news outlets have been reporting that 'Condo sales' in Seattle are "hot" - but what they don't discern is that those sales are actually the condominiumized lots of either homes and townhomes from lots that were split up - not condo building sales. It's the condominiumization of single family residential lots driving that increase as cities and states grapple with how to increase density.

The quantity of new listings coming on market usually rises quickly to peak in mid-late spring. The number in February ticked up 4% year over year.

The supply of active listings in February 2025 was the highest month-of-February count in 6 years, but still significantly below pre-pandemic norms. Active listings can be expected to rise month by month into autumn.

On an annual basis, the number of existing-home sales in 2024 hit its lowest point in 30 years. This monthly chart depicts the effects of the pandemic boom and then soaring interest rates in 2022, while also illustrating how market seasonality plays out within the calendar year. February 2025 sales rose from January, but declined from February 2024.

Months supply of inventory is a comparison of supply vs. demand, measuring how long it would take to sell the inventory of active listings at the existing rate of sale. On a long-term, pre-pandemic basis, the MSI in February 2025 would not be considered high, but it was the highest February reading since 2019.

Remember this is national numbers, our Months of inventory here in Seattle is significantly lower - Seattle was in "Shortage Territory" with inventory of only 1.7 months in February 2025. The Median Home Price was $1,100,000, with an average of only 6 days on the market. With townhomes at median price at $782,475, and 22 days on market.

Then as for condos, again, we can no longer rely on this data because it includes single family homes where their lots have been split into condo projects to squeeze DADUs and Townhomes on to the lot.

If you own a condo, and you want to know what to expect of the market, the only data you can rely on is Hyper local data specific to your building (which is really true for any home or townhome as well, but instead of 'building' its your neighborhood).

Since the early-year market is dominated by new listings, February is not normally a month with a high number of price reductions, however last month - nationally - did have the highest count for the month of February in 6 years.

You'll notice a trend of people over pricing their homes and reducing them in July, that's also a consequence of the largest price increases happening in May, closing in June. There always seems to be a 'flattening' of pricing right when most people think it's the best time to sell and inventory also increases.

Mortgage interest rates remained significantly down from mid-January when they rose above 7%. Every tick down supposedly improves affordability. But, you an dI know that it also gets more buyers in the market, pushing overall purchase prices higher. It's hard to believe due to the way the Seattle market behaves, but higher mortgage rates are actually keeping prices down. So when a home gets 6, 11, 14 offers - it would be more if mortgage rates were lower.

It's been a rocky, volatile time in stock markets as investors try to get a handle on the political and economic uncertainty prevailing nationally and internationally. After a huge plunge, markets started to rebound, but it's beyond us to predict what may happen next.

After 4 months of increases, inflation declined slightly in the latest reading, but concerns remain regarding the future direction of this major economic indicator.

Population change is a big factor in housing markets. This new U.S. Census map illustrates % population changes by county: In the latest 12-month estimates, populations generally rose in metro areas, while dropping in many rural counties. King County is in the 3% increase or more range. An increasing population and a housing shortage is definitely good for potential sellers, but tough on potential buyers.

The next 2 charts delineate national changes in 1) the last 12-month period measured by the Census, and 2) since the pandemic hit. Immigration into the country has accounted for the great majority of recent increases in U.S. population.

And these charts break out net  migration - people moving between regions within the country - and net  migration among 4 broad national regions. In domestic migration, only the south saw a net inflow, while all 4 saw substantial gains due to immigration from abroad.

With the appreciation of home prices since 2012, and especially since 2020, homeowner equity now constitutes an enormous part of household wealth (for homeowners): Almost $35 trillion.

That's a lot of national data, but what does it mean for Seattle?​

Home Prices and Sales Volume
Nationally, the median house sales price is rebounding from mid-winter lows and has increased year over year, a trend expected to continue through June as the spring market heats up. In Seattle, while specific March 2025 data isn't available, earlier reports showed a 27.5% increase in homes for sale in October 2024 compared to the previous year, suggesting a potential rise in sales activity. ​Axios

Inventory Levels
The national supply of active listings in February 2025 was the highest for that month in six years but remained below pre-pandemic norms. In Seattle, the number of newly listed homes increased by 16.9% over the four weeks ending December 8, 2024, compared to the previous year, indicating a potential easing of inventory constraints. ​Axios

That said, it's no where near 2016 - 2019 levels, and I can tell you, there were multiple offers back then too. Seattle needs a lot more houses to meet the demand.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability
Mortgage interest rates nationally have remained around 6.65%, significantly higher than five years ago when they averaged 3.5%. In high-priced markets like Seattle, buyers could see significant increases in their perceived ability to afford homes if mortgage rates continue to decline. That said, as you know, lower rates also means more buyers to compete raising overall pricing.

It really seems to be a double edged sword here in the seattle market as we are already seeing multiple offers on many homes pushing prices 10-30% over their advertised list prices (as my currently buyer clients are experiencing). That will only become more exasperated as rates fall and more people enter the market. ​MarketWatch, New York Post

Legislative Developments
Washington state lawmakers are considering a bill to cap rent increases for existing tenants at no more than 7% annually, aiming to address significant rent hikes affecting nearly 280,000 renters. Additionally, a proposed bill seeks to ban landlords from using software to set and coordinate rent prices, following concerns about inflated rents due to such practices. ​Axios, Axios

Heres the deal though, this basically guarantees landlords WILL raise rents by 7% every year. I know too many landlords that got hit with a hefty property tax bill that they couldn't pay, because they let rents slip. Now, prudent landlords will have to make sure they raise rents to the maximum threshold every year to stay on top of capital expenditures, homeowners insurance and property taxes. There is really no way around it.

Demographic Shifts
Younger buyers, particularly from Generation Z, are increasingly looking beyond Seattle to enter the housing market due to high costs and limited supply. Its the return of the commuter in a lot of instances. In 2024, Gen Z accounted for 13% of U.S. home mortgage applications, up from 10% in 2023. In Seattle, with just one month of housing supply in February 2025 and the fourth highest median price, the market remains challenging for first-time buyers. ​Axios

Overall, while national trends provide a broad context, local factors such as inventory levels, legislative changes, and demographic shifts play a crucial role in shaping the Seattle area's real estate market.​

Owning is still better than not owning
For many first-time buyers, it took everything they had to get into a home. And when life happens—whether it’s a career move, a wedding, a growing family, or simply realizing the space no longer fits—it’s okay to sell sooner than expected. In a perfect world, I'd love to see people hold on and build wealth over time, but that's not always realistic.

The key is knowing when to hold and when to move on.

✅ Breaking even? No problem. You got into the market and can roll that equity forward.

✅ Loving being a landlord? Hold as long as you can—Seattle’s long-term appreciation will far outweigh capital gains tax.

✅ Not in it for the long haul? It’s okay to cut the cord. Selling now could be the best move and reduce a TON of unneeded stress - especially if it helps you get into a home that fits your lifestyle for years to come.

Not sure what’s best for you? Let’s talk through the numbers and your options—no pressure, just strategy.

Please let me know if I can ever be of assistance to you, your family, friends or colleagues.

If you’re looking to buy in Seattle, acting sooner rather than later may be wise—prices are only expected to increase from here.

Best,

Justin H Gazabat
Broker | PNW, Seattle, Ballard, East Side
www.JustinGazabat.com
206-424-9497

PS: If anyone in your social or work circles considering a move, just send me an intro text or email with their best contact info, make sure everyone is CC’d and I’ll take care of the rest! I promise to take great care of them, serve them well, make you look good, plus help them get great results.