The New Big Surprising Trend in the Real Estate Market

If you’re thinking about moving, it’s important to know what’s happening in the housing market. Here’s an update on the supply of homes currently for sale. Whether you’re buying or selling, the number of homes in your area is something you should pay attention to.

In the housing market, there are regular patterns that happen every year, called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season and also when the most homes are typically listed for sale (homes coming onto the market are known in the industry as new listings). In the second half of each year, the number of new listings typically decreases as the pace of sales slows down.

That said, national data isn't local data. So we'll start at the top, and work our way down.

The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):

Looking at this graph, three things become clear:

• 2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.

• Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.

• This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, what’s happening is the number of new listings is stabilizing. And, there are even more new listings coming to the market this year compared to the same time last year.

No nationally we see that inventory is building, but what does that mean for Seattle?

Well, according redfins data in Seattle, only 0.2% of homes are selling under their listed price; the average days on market is 13, and total sales prices are up +4.1% since last year.

Compare that to what the MLS has to say, and we get a different story - entirely different for Seattle, King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties compared to what's happening nationally. Just goes to show that what they say on the national news rarely if at all means anything for our local market.

As far as Active Listings, there were 10,177 active listings on the market at the end of November 2023 (most recent data). That is a decrease of 16.9% compared to November 2022. The total volume of homes for sale has continued to decline, with 19 out of 26 counties seeing a year-over-year decrease in the volume of available homes for sale.

So what does this mean? It just shows the decrease in available active homes year over year From November to November. This bucks the national trend we saw above. Locally, we are still seeing seasonality.

And finally, This last chart from the MLS outlines the seasonality of our area by year. Each one of these lines in the next graph equals the Total - From all 26 Counties in the MLS (unfortunatly it wont let me break down each individual county).

Regarless, you'll notice a couple of things:

1. November 2019 was our last "normal" pre-pandemic market. You'll notice that it lays right between 2022 and 2023 insofar as active Volume signaling that even given the increase in interest rates, we are not dramatically different than a "normal" year in our market.

2. 2021 and 2022 - generally - had half the available inventory at this time in our area.

What Does This Mean for You?

• For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. Even though there is less to choose from than in 2022, there are nearly twice as many options as 2020 and 2021. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.

• For sellers, while new listings are showing some alignment with seasonal norms, inventory is still below where it was before the pandemic. Inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.

Bottom Line

Whether you're on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in your local area, connect with a real estate agent.

If you're making a move, reach out, and lets chat. Happy to brainstorm and come up with a solution that gets you a tangible and actionable plan that fits your unique situation.

Best,

Justin H Gazabat
Broker | PNW, Seattle, Ballard, East Side
Your Friendly Seattle Neighborhood Real Estate Professional.
www.JustinGazabat.com

PS: If anyone in your social or work circles considering a move, just send Me an intro text or email with their best contact info, make sure everyone is CC’d and I’ll take care of the rest! I promise to take great care of them, serve them well, make you look good, plus help them get great results.