Look, you've probably heard that real estate is too unpredictable during election years and that you shouldn't move. It’s natural to feel a bit of uncertainty as a Presidential election approaches—especially if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home. Questions start bubbling up, and it’s easy to wonder if it’s the right time to make a move or if it’s better to wait things out.

Here’s the good news: Presidential elections historically have only a small, temporary impact on the housing market. So, before you hit pause on your real estate plans, let’s dive into the relevant data and see what’s really going on.

Home Sales

One thing that tends to happen in the lead-up to an election is a slight dip in home sales, particularly from October to November. It’s not a major slowdown—more of a brief pause as some buyers and sellers decide to wait until after the election dust settles.

Honestly, it reminds me of the Warren Buffett quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Some of the best opportunities were early in the pandemic before the dust settled. I know I have clients who took advantage of the uncertainty and did extremely well for themselves. This is like that—just on a smaller scale that happens every four years.

Here’s the key takeaway: this dip is temporary.

History shows that home sales typically bounce back the following year, often stronger than before. In fact, after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the next year, according to data from HUD and NAR. This has been happening consistently since the early 1990s. So, if you’re thinking of buying or selling, don’t let election jitters hold you back.

Home Prices

Now, you might be wondering if election years bring a dip in home prices. The short answer? Not really. As Ryan Lundquist, a seasoned housing analyst, puts it, “An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.” In most cases, home prices continue their upward climb, regardless of who’s running for office. In fact, after 7 of the last 8 elections, home prices rose the following year, with the only exception being the 2008-2009 period—a time that had everything to do with the housing market crash, not the election. Today’s market is on much firmer ground.

That means you’d be taking advantage of fewer buyers in the market, less competition, and getting in before the upward pressure on prices hits as buyers reenter the market after the dust of the election settles.

Mortgage Rates

Finally, let’s talk about mortgage rates. These rates directly affect your monthly payments, so it’s no surprise they’re top of mind. Historically, mortgage rates have decreased from July to November in 8 of the last 11 Presidential election years. And this year, we’re already seeing a similar trend. Experts predict rates will ease slightly through the end of 2024, which could be great news for your buying power if you’re in the market for a new home.

Better news for those who already own a home and can just refinance. Every time mortgage rates lower, more buyers enter the market—and with about a 250,000 home shortfall in Seattle—that means competition. Yes, buying now might mean you have a higher rate, but rates will come down, and you will refinance.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the bottom line? While it’s normal to feel a bit of election-year anxiety, the housing market has proven to be resilient, with only minimal effects from the political season. As Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant notes, “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

In other words, there’s no need to let election concerns derail your goals. If you’re ready to move forward, the market is poised to give you a brief pause and some breathing room—it might be the opportunity you’re looking for.

If you need guidance on navigating this election cycle, don’t hesitate to reach out—I’m here to help you every step of the way.

If you're making a move, reach out, and lets chat. Happy to brainstorm and come up with a solution that gets you a tangible and actionable plan that fits your unique situation.

Best,

Justin H Gazabat
Broker | PNW, Seattle, Ballard, East Side
Your Friendly Seattle Neighborhood Real Estate Professional.
www.JustinGazabat.com

PS: If anyone in your social or work circles considering a move, just send Me an intro text or email with their best contact info, make sure everyone is CC’d and I’ll take care of the rest! I promise to take great care of them, serve them well, make you look good, plus help them get great results.

*(information from our friends at BLS, HUD, Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, Keeping Current Matters, Freddie Mac, National Association of Realtors, et al.)